← Primera Division 2025-26 · Sun, Sep 21, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona win | 76% | 72% | 1.27 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 20% | 6.06 | value: +19% |
| Getafe CF win | 8% | 9% | 12.30 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Getafe CF −1.75 | 52% | 1.93 |
| FC Barcelona −1.75 | 48% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 63% | 67% | 1.59 | value: +7% |
| Under | 37% | 33% | 2.75 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | 🟨 | Mario Martín · Getafe CF |
| 15' | ⚽ | Ferran Torres · FC Barcelona |
| 32' | 🟨 | Raphinha · FC Barcelona |
| 34' | ⚽ | Ferran Torres · FC Barcelona |
| 42' | 🟨 | Adrian Liso · Getafe CF |
| 44' | 🟨 | Djené · Getafe CF |
| 54' | 🟨 | Andreas Christensen · FC Barcelona |
| 58' | 🟨 | Abdelkabir Abqar · Getafe CF |
| 62' | ⚽ | Dani Olmo · FC Barcelona |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 3 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 2 |
| 9 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Barcelona | Getafe CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | Estadi Johan Cruyff |
| coach days | 508.00 | 904.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.01 | 1.42 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1963.14 | 1625.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.49 | 20.16 |
| eye test v1 | 1.54 | -0.87 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.30 | 0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.00 | 61.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.69 |
| league points | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.00 | 73.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 69.20 | 37.20 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 8.29 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 2.50 | 2.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 12.60 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 19.80 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | 2.09 | -1.21 |
| solidity v1 | 0.51 | 0.71 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.90 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 26.11 | 28.16 |
| state index | 1.92 | 0.53 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.02 | -0.87 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.17 | 0.86 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.24 | 0.80 |