← Primera Division 2025-26 · Sat, Sep 20, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: Iosu Galech Apezteguia, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Alavés win | 39% | 36% | 2.53 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 38% | 3.05 | value: +16% |
| Sevilla FC win | 29% | 26% | 3.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sevilla FC −0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Deportivo Alavés −0.25 | 47% | 2.14 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 64% | 63% | 1.51 | fair |
| Over | 36% | 37% | 2.68 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Rubén Vargas · Sevilla FC |
| 17' | ⚽ (pen) | Carlos Vicente · Deportivo Alavés |
| 39' | 🟨 | Rubén Vargas · Sevilla FC |
| 44' | 🟨 | Tanguy Nianzou · Sevilla FC |
| 67' | ⚽ | Alexis Sánchez · Sevilla FC |
| 77' | 🟨 | Batista Mendy · Sevilla FC |
| 84' | 🟨 | Gabriel Suazo · Sevilla FC |
| 85' | 🟨 | Odysseas Vlachodimos · Sevilla FC |
| 89' | 🟨 | Antonio Blanco · Deportivo Alavés |
| 90' | 🟨 | César Azpilicueta · Sevilla FC |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 20 | Fouls | 19 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 7 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Deportivo Alavés | Sevilla FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Estadio Mendizorrotza |
| 🟨 |
| Peque Fernández · Sevilla FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 1238.00 | 81.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.27 | 2.23 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.23 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1690.08 | 1655.09 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.60 | -6.00 |
| eye test v1 | -0.38 | -0.01 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.12 | -0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.10 | 44.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.85 | 0.67 |
| league points | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 84.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.40 | 53.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.90 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.75 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.18 | 0.32 |
| solidity v1 | 0.16 | -0.57 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 28.04 | 28.19 |
| state index | 0.61 | -0.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.39 | 0.55 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.33 | 1.55 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.08 | 0.94 |