← Primera Division 2025-26 · Sat, Sep 20, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: Alejandro Quintero Gonzalez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Girona win | 53% | 54% | 1.83 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 25% | 3.92 | fair |
| Levante UD win | 22% | 21% | 4.64 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Girona −0.5 | 54% | 1.83 |
| Levante UD −0.5 | 46% | 2.14 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 57% | 1.76 | fair |
| Under | 44% | 43% | 2.20 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | 🟨 | Arnau Martínez · Girona |
| 18' | 🟨 | Axel Witsel · Girona |
| 24' | 🟨 | Unai Vencedor · Levante UD |
| 30' | 🟨 | Axel Witsel · Girona |
| 30' | 🟥 | Axel Witsel · Girona |
| 37' | 🟨 | Carlos Álvarez · Levante UD |
| 43' | ⚽ | Etta Eyong · Levante UD |
| 46' | 🟥 | Vitor Reis · Girona |
| 49' | ⚽ | Carlos Álvarez · Levante UD |
| 57' | 🟨 | Manuel Sánchez · Levante UD |
| 62' | 🟨 |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 7 | Shots | 14 |
| 1 | On target | 7 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 17 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 2 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Girona | Levante UD |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | Estadio Municipal de Montilivi |
| Hugo Rincón · Girona |
| 70' | ⚽ | Iván Romero · Levante UD |
| 90' | ⚽ | Goduine Koyalipou · Levante UD |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 81.00 | 81.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -6.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 9.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.96 | 2.00 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| elo | 1634.13 | 1628.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -51.28 | -16.10 |
| eye test v1 | -0.44 | -0.34 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.46 | -0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.30 | 59.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.79 |
| league points | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.80 | 71.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.80 | 32.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.91 |
| season ppg | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.20 | -11.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 8.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.17 | -1.26 |
| solidity v1 | -2.39 | -0.96 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 27.70 | 28.07 |
| state index | -1.05 | -0.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.51 | -1.44 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.45 | 1.61 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.70 | 1.19 |