← Primera Division 2025-26 · Sun, Sep 14, 02:15 PM UTC · ref: Alejandro Muñiz Ruiz, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Betis Balompié win | 47% | 42% | 2.14 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.62 | fair |
| Levante UD win | 26% | 33% | 3.70 | value: +21% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Levante UD +0.5 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Real Betis Balompié +0.5 | 47% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 49% | 1.76 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 51% | 2.15 | value: +9% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Iván Romero · Levante UD |
| 10' | ⚽ | Etta Eyong · Levante UD |
| 45' | ⚽ | Cucho Hernández · Real Betis Balompié |
| 50' | 🟨 | Héctor Bellerín · Real Betis Balompié |
| 63' | 🟨 | Iván Romero · Levante UD |
| 69' | 🟨 | Mathew Ryan · Levante UD |
| 78' | 🟨 | Adrián de la Fuente · Levante UD |
| 81' | ⚽ | Pablo Fornals · Real Betis Balompié |
| 90' | 🟨 | Manuel Sánchez · Levante UD |
| 90' | 🟨 | Natan · Real Betis Balompié |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 5 | Shots | 28 |
| 2 | On target | 9 |
| 4 | Corners | 12 |
| 16 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Levante UD | Real Betis Balompié |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Estadio Ciudad de Valencia |
| 1.20 |
| coach days | 75.00 | 1870.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.99 | 1.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1626.41 | 1764.56 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.13 | -18.19 |
| eye test v1 | 0.14 | -0.32 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.26 | -0.55 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.20 | 53.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.57 | 0.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | — |
| league points | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.60 | 83.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.20 | 43.60 |
| rest days | 15.86 | 13.89 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.60 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.80 | -0.05 |
| solidity v1 | -0.50 | 0.08 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 28.51 | 26.87 |
| state index | 0.03 | 0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.25 | -0.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.44 | 1.00 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.34 | 1.17 |