← Primera Division 2025-26 · Sat, Sep 13, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: José María Sánchez Martínez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club win | 60% | 65% | 1.61 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 25% | 24% | 3.83 | fair |
| Deportivo Alavés win | 15% | 12% | 6.60 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club −0.75 | 54% | 1.79 |
| Deportivo Alavés −0.75 | 46% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 57% | 1.61 | fair |
| Over | 40% | 43% | 2.41 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | 🟨 | Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta · Athletic Club |
| 30' | 🟨 | Mariano Díaz · Deportivo Alavés |
| 49' | 🟨 | Nahuel Tenaglia · Deportivo Alavés |
| 53' | 🟨 | Aitor Paredes · Athletic Club |
| 57' | ⚽ (og) | Álex Berenguer · Deportivo Alavés |
| 85' | 🟨 | Jon Pacheco · Deportivo Alavés |
| 90' | 🟨 | Urko Izeta · Athletic Club |
| 90' | 🟨 | Pablo Ibáñez · Deportivo Alavés |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 4 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 17 | Fouls | 21 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Athletic Club | Deportivo Alavés |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | San Mamés |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 1200.00 | 1231.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.28 | 3.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1805.45 | 1632.11 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.63 | 12.83 |
| eye test v1 | -0.05 | -0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.56 | 0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.80 | 64.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.82 |
| league points | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.80 | 78.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.00 | 50.00 |
| rest days | 12.98 | 14.06 |
| season ppg | 3.00 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.10 | -0.01 |
| solidity v1 | 0.61 | 0.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 27.12 | 27.69 |
| state index | 1.00 | 0.41 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.74 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.18 | 1.40 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.62 | 1.32 |