← Primera Division 2025-26 · Fri, Sep 12, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Javier Alberola Rojas, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla FC win | 50% | 48% | 1.93 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 35% | 3.38 | value: +17% |
| Elche CF win | 21% | 17% | 4.63 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sevilla FC −0.5 | 50% | 1.94 |
| Elche CF −0.5 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 60% | 1.65 | fair |
| Over | 41% | 40% | 2.34 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | 🟨 | Lucien Agoumé · Sevilla FC |
| 28' | ⚽ | Isaac Romero · Sevilla FC |
| 44' | 🟨 | Isaac Romero · Sevilla FC |
| 44' | 🟨 | Víctor Chust · Elche CF |
| 52' | 🟨 | Tanguy Nianzou · Sevilla FC |
| 54' | ⚽ | André Silva · Elche CF |
| 70' | ⚽ | Rafa Mir · Elche CF |
| 83' | 🟨 | Adrià Pedrosa · Elche CF |
| 85' | ⚽ | Peque Fernández · Sevilla FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | César Azpilicueta · Sevilla FC |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 5 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 2 | Corners | 2 |
| 23 | Fouls | 19 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sevilla FC | Elche CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán |
| 🟨 |
| John Nwankwo · Elche CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 73.00 | 438.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.22 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.16 | 3.93 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1612.95 | 1611.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.83 | 47.52 |
| eye test v1 | -0.23 | -0.15 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.06 | -0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 43.20 | 63.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.76 |
| league points | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.60 | 85.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.40 | 57.40 |
| rest days | 13.06 | 14.06 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.13 | 0.58 |
| solidity v1 | -0.98 | 0.15 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 26.44 | 27.07 |
| state index | -0.08 | 0.93 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.31 | 1.22 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.76 | 1.95 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.96 | 0.97 |