← Primera Division 2025-26 · Sun, Aug 31, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: Isidro Diaz de Mera Escuderos, Spain
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Athletic Club win | 40% | 35% | 2.46 | fair |
| Real Betis Balompié win | 30% | 31% | 3.25 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 34% | 3.28 | value: +11% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Real Betis Balompié +0.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Athletic Club +0.25 | 48% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 55% | 70% | 1.79 | value: +26% ⚠ |
| Over | 45% | 30% | 2.13 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 15 |
| 2 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 10 |
| 9 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Estadio de La Cartuja |