← Primera Division 2025-26 · Sat, Aug 16, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: José Luis Munuera Montero, Spain
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| FC Barcelona win | 71% | 71% | 1.39 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 16% | 5.50 | fair |
| Mallorca win | 11% | 13% | 9.50 | value: +22% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Mallorca +1.5 | 50% | 2.00 |
| FC Barcelona +1.5 | 50% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 65% | 62% | 1.50 | fair |
| Under | 35% | 38% | 2.75 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 4 | Shots | 24 |
| 1 | On target | 8 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 8 | Fouls | 17 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 2 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Estadi Mallorca Son Moix |