← Primera Division 2024-25 · Sat, May 24, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Juan Martínez
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RC Celta de Vigo win | 55% | 50% | 1.76 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 25% | 3.90 | fair |
| Getafe CF win | 20% | 25% | 4.95 | value: +22% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Getafe CF +0.75 | 50% | 1.93 |
| RC Celta de Vigo +0.75 | 50% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 52% | 1.85 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 48% | 2.07 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | 🟨 | Juan Berrocal · Getafe CF |
| 11' | ⚽ | Borja Mayoral · Getafe CF |
| 25' | ⚽ | Borja Iglesias · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 53' | 🟨 | Diego Rico · Getafe CF |
| 80' | ⚽ | Iago Aspas · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 81' | 🟨 | Iago Aspas · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 85' | 🟨 | Ismael Bekhoucha · Getafe CF |
| 85' | 🟨 | Ilaix Moriba · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 90' | 🟥 | Domingos Duarte · Getafe CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Sergio Carreira · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 6 | Shots | 15 |
| 1 | On target | 8 |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 13 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Getafe CF | RC Celta de Vigo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 |
| venue | Estadio Coliseum |
| 🟨 |
| Hugo Sotelo · RC Celta de Vigo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 784.00 | 449.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.85 | 3.78 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1650.49 | 1709.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.09 | 23.76 |
| eye test v1 | -0.55 | 0.87 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.38 | -0.39 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.40 | 52.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.33 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | — |
| league points | 42.00 | 52.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 64.40 | 85.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 36.00 | 51.60 |
| rest days | 6.08 | 6.08 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.14 | 1.41 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.53 | 0.90 |
| solidity v1 | -0.26 | -0.34 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 29.07 | 26.56 |
| state index | -0.15 | 0.68 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -2.04 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.37 | 1.52 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.15 | 1.88 |