← Primera Division 2024-25 · Sun, May 18, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: Miguel Ortiz
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol win | 56% | 50% | 1.72 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 28% | 3.88 | value: +10% |
| Girona win | 18% | 22% | 5.25 | value: +15% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol −0.75 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Girona −0.75 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 39% | 1.72 | fair |
| Under | 44% | 61% | 2.20 | value: +33% ⚠ |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Pablo Marín · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 10' | ⚽ | Christian Stuani · Girona |
| 20' | ⚽ (pen) | Mikel Oyarzabal · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 49' | 🟨 | Jhon Solís · Girona |
| 62' | 🟨 | Hamari Traoré · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 62' | 🟨 | Christian Stuani · Girona |
| 77' | ⚽ | Portu · Girona |
| 90' | 🟨 | Arnau Martínez · Girona |
| 90' | ⚽ | Arkaitz Mariezkurrena · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 9 |
| 9 | On target | 5 |
| 9 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Sociedad de Fútbol | Girona |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Reale Arena |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 2360.00 | 1417.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.37 | 2.74 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1696.50 | 1693.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.60 | -9.82 |
| eye test v1 | -0.61 | -0.28 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.80 | 60.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.15 | 0.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.71 |
| league points | 43.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.60 | 87.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.80 | 56.80 |
| rest days | 4.96 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.19 | 1.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.42 | 0.66 |
| solidity v1 | 0.57 | 0.45 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 27.04 | 28.57 |
| state index | -0.32 | 0.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.10 | 1.22 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.02 | 1.10 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.93 |