← Primera Division 2024-25 · Tue, May 13, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: Juan Martínez
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla FC win | 56% | 61% | 1.72 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 25% | 22% | 3.87 | fair |
| Las Palmas win | 19% | 17% | 5.25 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sevilla FC −0.75 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Las Palmas −0.75 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 50% | 1.93 | fair |
| Under | 49% | 50% | 1.99 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | José Campaña · Las Palmas |
| 7' | 🟨 | Lucien Agoumé · Sevilla FC |
| 24' | 🟨 | Mika Mármol · Las Palmas |
| 52' | ⚽ | Alvaro Garcia-Pascual · Sevilla FC |
| 55' | 🟨 | Suso · Sevilla FC |
| 56' | 🟨 | Juanlu Sánchez · Sevilla FC |
| 76' | 🟨 | Saúl Ñíguez · Sevilla FC |
| 83' | 🟨 | Javier Muñoz · Las Palmas |
| 87' | 🟨 | Marc Cardona · Las Palmas |
| 90' | 🟨 | Loïc Badé · Sevilla FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nemanja Gudelj · |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 14 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 22 | Fouls | 15 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sevilla FC | Las Palmas |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.19 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán |
| 90' | 🟨 | Oliver McBurnie · Las Palmas |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jaime Mata · Las Palmas |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 42.00 |
| 224.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.01 | 2.57 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1616.03 | 1559.25 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -29.82 | 14.51 |
| eye test v1 | 0.61 | -0.69 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.35 | -0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.20 | 53.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.70 |
| league points | 38.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.40 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.20 | 49.00 |
| rest days | 3.22 | 4.02 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.09 | 0.91 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.60 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.60 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.37 | -0.18 |
| solidity v1 | 0.63 | -0.06 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 26.99 | 24.75 |
| state index | -0.40 | 0.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.47 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.87 | 1.43 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.67 | 1.07 |