← Primera Division 2024-25 · Sun, May 11, 02:15 PM UTC · ref: Alejandro Hernández
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona win | 52% | 56% | 1.88 | value: +5% |
| Real Madrid CF win | 26% | 18% | 3.76 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 26% | 4.47 | value: +18% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona −0.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Real Madrid CF −0.5 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 74% | 65% | 1.35 | fair |
| Under | 26% | 35% | 4.00 | value: +39% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Ronald Araújo · FC Barcelona |
| 5' | ⚽ (pen) | Kylian Mbappé · Real Madrid CF |
| 14' | ⚽ | Kylian Mbappé · Real Madrid CF |
| 19' | ⚽ | Eric García · FC Barcelona |
| 29' | 🟨 | Federico Valverde · Real Madrid CF |
| 32' | ⚽ | Lamine Yamal · FC Barcelona |
| 34' | ⚽ | Raphinha · FC Barcelona |
| 36' | 🟨 | Aurélien Tchouaméni · Real Madrid CF |
| 45' | ⚽ | Raphinha · FC Barcelona |
| 50' | 🟨 | Raúl Asencio · Real Madrid CF |
| 54' |
| 4 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 23 | Shots | 9 |
| 9 | On target | 5 |
| 10 | Corners | 2 |
| 17 | Fouls | 15 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Barcelona | Real Madrid CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Estadi Olímpic Lluís Companys |
| 🟨 |
| Iñigo Martínez · FC Barcelona |
| 70' | ⚽ | Kylian Mbappé · Real Madrid CF |
| 80' | 🟨 | Fermín López · FC Barcelona |
| 87' | 🟨 | Pedri · FC Barcelona |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 375.00 | 1440.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.18 | 3.89 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1985.05 | 1976.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.52 | -1.63 |
| eye test v1 | 1.40 | 1.23 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.18 | -0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.30 | 61.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.90 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.84 |
| league points | 79.00 | 75.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 16.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 89.80 | 89.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 74.20 | 59.80 |
| rest days | 7.80 | 7.09 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 2.32 | 2.21 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 21.40 | 17.00 |
| skill v1 | 2.35 | 1.52 |
| solidity v1 | 1.08 | 0.34 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.80 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.33 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 6.60 |
| squad age | 24.28 | 26.74 |
| state index | 1.64 | 1.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.47 | 0.70 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.77 | 1.16 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.13 | 1.90 |