← Primera Division 2024-25 · Sun, May 11, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: Javier Alberola
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leganes win | 42% | 40% | 2.34 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 30% | 3.25 | fair |
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win | 29% | 31% | 3.43 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona −0.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Leganes −0.25 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 61% | 1.74 | value: +5% |
| Over | 45% | 39% | 2.18 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 33' | ⚽ | Seydouba Cisse · Leganes |
| 41' | ⚽ | Yan Diomande · Leganes |
| 45' | 🟨 | Javi Puado · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
| 61' | 🟨 | Dani Raba · Leganes |
| 63' | ⚽ (og) | Marash Kumbulla · Leganes |
| 73' | 🟨 | Leandro Cabrera · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
| 79' | ⚽ | Leandro Cabrera · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jorge Sáenz · Leganes |
| 90' | ⚽ | Pere Milla · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 8 |
| 14 | Fouls | 18 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leganes | RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 |
| venue | Estadio Municipal de Butarque |
| 1.00 |
| coach days | 680.00 | 436.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 8.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.81 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1602.14 | 1670.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.62 | 16.68 |
| eye test v1 | -0.91 | -0.61 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.16 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.10 | 59.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.85 |
| league points | 31.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.20 | 81.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.00 | 44.60 |
| rest days | 6.91 | 6.81 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 0.91 | 1.15 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | -6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.74 | -0.30 |
| solidity v1 | -0.05 | -0.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 30.40 | 27.82 |
| state index | -0.18 | 0.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.37 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.57 | 0.98 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.95 | 0.83 |