← Primera Division 2024-25 · Sat, May 10, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: Adrián Cordero
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia CF win | 48% | 49% | 2.02 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 29% | 3.15 | fair |
| Getafe CF win | 21% | 22% | 4.62 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Getafe CF −0.5 | 52% | 1.90 |
| Valencia CF −0.5 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 62% | 62% | 1.56 | fair |
| Over | 38% | 38% | 2.56 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | 🟨 | Omar Alderete · Getafe CF |
| 8' | ⚽ (pen) | Pepelu · Valencia CF |
| 18' | ⚽ | Diego López · Valencia CF |
| 26' | 🟨 | Diego Rico · Getafe CF |
| 35' | 🟨 | Domingos Duarte · Getafe CF |
| 37' | ⚽ (pen) | Hugo Duro · Valencia CF |
| 50' | 🟨 | Diego López · Valencia CF |
| 50' | 🟨 | David Soria · Getafe CF |
| 72' | 🟨 | Javier Guerra · Valencia CF |
| 76' | 🟨 | César Tárrega · Valencia CF |
| 83' |
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 10 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 17 | Fouls | 20 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Valencia CF | Getafe CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Estadio de Mestalla |
| 🟨 |
| Juan Berrocal · Getafe CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 160.00 | 770.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 1.85 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1708.50 | 1659.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 33.85 | -30.31 |
| eye test v1 | 0.13 | 0.39 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.26 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.90 | 55.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.72 |
| league points | 42.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.00 | 70.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.80 | 41.20 |
| rest days | 6.81 | 7.71 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.24 | 1.15 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.11 | -0.76 |
| solidity v1 | -0.07 | 0.29 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 26.71 | 28.42 |
| state index | 0.79 | 0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.27 | -1.39 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.38 | 1.03 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.25 | 1.46 |