← Primera Division 2024-25 · Sun, May 4, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: Gil Manzano
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid CF win | 71% | 74% | 1.36 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 16% | 5.75 | fair |
| RC Celta de Vigo win | 13% | 10% | 8.20 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| RC Celta de Vigo −1.5 | 52% | 1.87 |
| Real Madrid CF −1.5 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 70% | 67% | 1.36 | fair |
| Under | 30% | 33% | 3.28 | value: +9% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 33' | ⚽ | Arda Güler · Real Madrid CF |
| 39' | ⚽ | Kylian Mbappé · Real Madrid CF |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jude Bellingham · Real Madrid CF |
| 48' | ⚽ | Kylian Mbappé · Real Madrid CF |
| 62' | 🟨 | Yoel Lago · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 69' | ⚽ | Javi Rodríguez · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 76' | ⚽ | Williot Swedberg · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jacobo Ramón · Real Madrid CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 14 |
| 6 | On target | 7 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 5 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Madrid CF | RC Celta de Vigo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.51 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Estadio Santiago Bernabéu |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 1433.00 | 429.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.08 | 3.53 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.68 |
| elo | 1974.07 | 1706.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.79 | 5.04 |
| eye test v1 | 1.54 | 1.15 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.15 | 0.49 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.50 | 46.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.84 | 0.63 |
| league points | 72.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 11.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.80 | 84.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 63.20 | 54.20 |
| rest days | 10.69 | 10.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 2.18 | 1.39 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 7.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.40 | 15.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.75 | 0.78 |
| solidity v1 | 0.29 | 0.73 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.00 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 7.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 6.80 |
| squad age | 26.40 | 27.75 |
| state index | 1.40 | 0.67 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.83 | 0.13 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.36 | 0.98 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.05 | 1.55 |