← Primera Division 2024-25 · Sat, May 3, 02:15 PM UTC · ref: Alejandro Quintero
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal CF win | 67% | 62% | 1.43 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 20% | 4.92 | fair |
| CA Osasuna win | 13% | 18% | 7.62 | value: +35% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Villarreal CF −1.25 | 51% | 1.94 |
| CA Osasuna −1.25 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 60% | 1.63 | fair |
| Under | 41% | 40% | 2.39 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Ayoze Pérez · Villarreal CF |
| 33' | ⚽ | Thierno Barry · Villarreal CF |
| 39' | ⚽ | Ayoze Pérez · Villarreal CF |
| 61' | 🟨 | Pau Navarro · Villarreal CF |
| 66' | ⚽ | Rubén García · CA Osasuna |
| 71' | ⚽ | Nicolas Pépé · Villarreal CF |
| 81' | ⚽ (pen) | Aimar Oroz · CA Osasuna |
| 83' | 🟨 | Santi Comesaña · Villarreal CF |
| 88' | 🟨 | Tajon Buchanan · Villarreal CF |
| 89' | 🟨 | Álex Baena · Villarreal CF |
| 89' |
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 8 |
| 10 | Fouls | 18 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Villarreal CF | CA Osasuna |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.00 |
| venue | Estadio de la Cerámica |
| 🟨 |
| Aimar Oroz · CA Osasuna |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 549.00 | 2528.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.07 | 1.69 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1791.28 | 1702.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.42 | 29.15 |
| eye test v1 | -0.26 | 0.09 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | 0.40 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.20 | 54.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.69 |
| league points | 55.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.40 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.20 | 44.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 8.89 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.67 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.16 | -0.05 |
| solidity v1 | -0.26 | -0.06 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 27.81 | 27.59 |
| state index | 0.39 | 0.60 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.01 | -0.10 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.65 | 1.21 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.47 | 1.34 |