← Primera Division 2024-25 · Thu, Apr 24, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: Pablo González
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Club Atlético de Madrid win | 64% | 68% | 1.51 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 22% | 20% | 4.39 | fair |
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win | 14% | 12% | 7.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Club Atlético de Madrid −1 | 53% | 1.88 |
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid −1 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 52% | 48% | 1.93 | fair |
| Under | 48% | 52% | 2.05 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 8 | Fouls | 15 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Riyadh Air Metropolitano |