← Primera Division 2024-25 · Tue, Apr 22, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: Miguel Ortiz
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| FC Barcelona win | 74% | 79% | 1.30 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 15% | 5.90 | fair |
| Mallorca win | 9% | 6% | 11.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Mallorca −1.5 | 50% | 1.96 |
| FC Barcelona −1.5 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 61% | 61% | 1.58 | fair |
| Under | 39% | 39% | 2.49 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 40 | Shots | 4 |
| 13 | On target | 0 |
| 13 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 7 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Estadi Olímpic Lluís Companys |