← Primera Division 2024-25 · Mon, Apr 21, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Alejandro Hernández
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Girona win | 37% | 34% | 2.61 | fair |
| Real Betis Balompié win | 34% | 35% | 2.83 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.44 | value: +5% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Girona +0 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Real Betis Balompié +0 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 52% | 1.87 | fair |
| Under | 48% | 48% | 2.06 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Johnny Cardoso · Real Betis Balompié |
| 26' | 🟨 | Aitor Ruibal · Real Betis Balompié |
| 39' | ⚽ | Antony · Real Betis Balompié |
| 42' | ⚽ | Isco · Real Betis Balompié |
| 52' | 🟨 | Arthur · Girona |
| 65' | 🟨 | Alejandro Francés · Girona |
| 85' | ⚽ | Christian Stuani · Girona |
| 90' | 🟨 | David López · Girona |
| 90' | 🟨 | Romain Perraud · Real Betis Balompié |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 11 | Shots | 17 |
| 5 | On target | 9 |
| 8 | Corners | 9 |
| 13 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Girona | Real Betis Balompié |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Estadi Municipal de Montilivi |
| 1.00 |
| coach days | 1390.00 | 1724.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.46 | 2.82 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1703.44 | 1777.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -33.74 | 1.92 |
| eye test v1 | -0.14 | 0.34 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.12 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.50 | 54.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.76 |
| league points | 34.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 12.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.60 | 85.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.20 | 54.60 |
| rest days | 8.29 | 4.09 |
| scorer concentration | 0.12 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 1.10 | 1.55 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.65 | 0.79 |
| solidity v1 | -0.25 | 1.22 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 28.02 | 28.80 |
| state index | -0.36 | 0.74 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.83 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.25 | 0.85 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.07 | 1.48 |