← Primera Division 2024-25 · Sun, Apr 20, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: Miguel Ortiz
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Sevilla FC win | 45% | 50% | 2.17 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 33% | 29% | 2.96 | fair |
| Deportivo Alavés win | 22% | 22% | 4.37 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Sevilla FC −0.25 | 54% | 1.82 |
| Deportivo Alavés −0.25 | 46% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 66% | 67% | 1.47 | fair |
| Over | 34% | 33% | 2.82 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 11 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 10 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán |