← Primera Division 2024-25 · Sat, Apr 19, 02:15 PM UTC · ref: Mario Melero
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona win | 77% | 75% | 1.25 | fair |
| Draw | 14% | 17% | 7.02 | value: +21% |
| RC Celta de Vigo win | 10% | 7% | 10.35 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| RC Celta de Vigo −2 | 53% | 1.86 |
| FC Barcelona −2 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 74% | 69% | 1.32 | fair |
| Under | 26% | 31% | 3.75 | value: +17% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Ferran Torres · FC Barcelona |
| 15' | ⚽ | Borja Iglesias · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 52' | ⚽ | Borja Iglesias · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 62' | ⚽ | Borja Iglesias · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 65' | ⚽ | Dani Olmo · FC Barcelona |
| 68' | ⚽ | Raphinha · FC Barcelona |
| 90' | 🟨 | Iñigo Martínez · FC Barcelona |
| 90' | 🟨 | Raphinha · FC Barcelona |
| 90' | 🟨 | Óscar Mingueza · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 90' | 🟨 | Iago Aspas · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 11 |
| 6 | On target | 8 |
| 4 | Corners | 1 |
| 10 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Barcelona | RC Celta de Vigo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Estadi Olímpic Lluís Companys |
| ⚽ (pen) |
| Raphinha · FC Barcelona |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 353.00 | 414.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.81 | 3.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.64 |
| elo | 1978.92 | 1688.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.61 | 0.21 |
| eye test v1 | 0.91 | 0.04 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.16 | 0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 46.60 | 49.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.70 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.66 |
| league points | 70.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 13.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 89.40 | 86.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 69.80 | 59.80 |
| rest days | 6.80 | 6.91 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.14 |
| season ppg | 2.26 | 1.39 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.60 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | 2.02 | 0.83 |
| solidity v1 | 1.72 | 1.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.80 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 26.55 | 27.44 |
| state index | 1.84 | 0.50 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.70 | 1.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.75 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.95 | 1.05 |