← Primera Division 2024-25 · Sun, Apr 13, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Adrián Cordero
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club win | 53% | 58% | 1.85 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 30% | 26% | 3.29 | fair |
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win | 18% | 17% | 5.44 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club −0.5 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid −0.5 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 62% | 55% | 1.56 | fair |
| Over | 38% | 45% | 2.54 | value: +14% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Álvaro Djaló · Athletic Club |
| 36' | 🟨 | Daniel Vivian · Athletic Club |
| 37' | ⚽ | Pathé Ismaël Ciss · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
| 50' | 🟨 | Pedro Diaz · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
| 57' | 🟨 | Alfonso Espino · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
| 58' | ⚽ (pen) | Oihan Sancet · Athletic Club |
| 75' | 🟨 | Unai López · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
| 80' | ⚽ | Nico Williams · Athletic Club |
| 84' | 🟨 | Adama Boiro · Athletic Club |
| 87' | 🟨 | Iñaki Williams · Athletic Club |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 1 |
| 12 | Fouls | 7 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Athletic Club | Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 |
| venue | San Mamés Barria |
| 90' | ⚽ | Oihan Sancet · Athletic Club |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 1047.00 | 437.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.56 | 1.90 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1854.45 | 1665.91 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.24 | -12.66 |
| eye test v1 | 0.20 | 0.52 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.35 | -0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.00 | 46.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.17 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.72 |
| league points | 54.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.80 | 82.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.00 | 57.40 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.13 |
| season ppg | 1.80 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 15.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.80 | 0.45 |
| solidity v1 | 1.43 | -0.53 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 27.63 | 29.37 |
| state index | 1.03 | 0.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.66 | 0.42 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.84 | 1.52 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.39 | 1.08 |