← Primera Division 2024-25 · Mon, Mar 31, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Juan Martínez
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| RC Celta de Vigo win | 60% | 58% | 1.61 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 24% | 4.10 | fair |
| Las Palmas win | 16% | 18% | 6.05 | value: +10% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Las Palmas −1 | 52% | 1.88 |
| RC Celta de Vigo −1 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 50% | 46% | 1.95 | fair |
| Under | 50% | 54% | 1.97 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 4 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 17 | Fouls | 5 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Estadio Abanca-Balaídos |