← Primera Division 2024-25 · Sun, Mar 30, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Mateo Busquets
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Betis Balompié win | 54% | 57% | 1.78 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.58 | fair |
| Sevilla FC win | 19% | 17% | 5.27 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sevilla FC −0.75 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Real Betis Balompié −0.75 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 48% | 1.69 | fair |
| Over | 43% | 52% | 2.26 | value: +18% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ | Rubén Vargas · Sevilla FC |
| 25' | ⚽ | Johnny Cardoso · Real Betis Balompié |
| 36' | 🟨 | Adrián · Real Betis Balompié |
| 36' | 🟨 | José Ángel Carmona · Sevilla FC |
| 45' | ⚽ | Cucho Hernández · Real Betis Balompié |
| 56' | 🟨 | Isco · Real Betis Balompié |
| 86' | 🟨 | Loïc Badé · Sevilla FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Giovani Lo Celso · Real Betis Balompié |
| 90' | 🟨 | Saúl Ñíguez · Sevilla FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 6 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 2 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 22 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Betis Balompié | Sevilla FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.49 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| venue | Estadio Benito Villamarín |
| coach days |
| 1702.00 |
| 302.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.80 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.25 | 2.15 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1737.06 | 1658.73 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 44.13 | 19.91 |
| eye test v1 | 0.99 | -0.05 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.24 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.00 | 68.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.66 |
| league points | 44.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.60 | 80.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.80 | 47.60 |
| rest days | 14.25 | 14.16 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 1.57 | 1.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.00 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.24 | -0.31 |
| solidity v1 | 1.23 | 0.30 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.10 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 28.42 | 26.32 |
| state index | 1.36 | 0.79 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.07 | -0.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.85 | 1.48 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.12 | 0.79 |