← Primera Division 2024-25 · Sun, Mar 30, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: Francisco Hernández
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia CF win | 48% | 46% | 2.01 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 30% | 3.23 | fair |
| Mallorca win | 22% | 24% | 4.52 | value: +9% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Mallorca −0.5 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Valencia CF −0.5 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 63% | 61% | 1.53 | fair |
| Over | 37% | 39% | 2.63 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Antonio Raíllo · Mallorca |
| 45' | 🟨 | Sergi Darder · Mallorca |
| 50' | ⚽ | Diego López · Valencia CF |
| 76' | 🟨 | Samú Costa · Mallorca |
| 84' | 🟨 | Luis Rioja · Valencia CF |
| 85' | 🟨 | Enzo Barrenechea · Valencia CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | José Luis Gayà · Valencia CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Dimitri Foulquier · Valencia CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Dani Rodríguez · Mallorca |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 8 |
| 2 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 16 | Fouls | 15 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Valencia CF | Mallorca |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| venue | Estadio de Mestalla |
| coach days |
| 119.00 |
| 272.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.16 | 1.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1620.09 | 1640.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.92 | 23.55 |
| eye test v1 | -0.17 | 0.08 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.22 | 0.52 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.90 | 65.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.70 |
| league points | 28.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.80 | 79.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.80 | 49.00 |
| rest days | 14.85 | 15.05 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.43 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.61 | 0.29 |
| solidity v1 | 0.11 | 0.79 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 26.13 | 28.84 |
| state index | 0.42 | 0.55 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.17 | -0.27 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.21 | 0.95 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.34 | 1.68 |