← Primera Division 2024-25 · Sat, Mar 29, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Pablo González
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid CF win | 79% | 80% | 1.20 | fair |
| Draw | 14% | 15% | 7.43 | value: +9% |
| Leganes win | 7% | 5% | 14.16 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Leganes −2 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Real Madrid CF −2 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 67% | 67% | 1.44 | fair |
| Under | 33% | 33% | 2.96 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 32' | ⚽ (pen) | Kylian Mbappé · Real Madrid CF |
| 34' | ⚽ | Diego García · Leganes |
| 41' | ⚽ | Dani Raba · Leganes |
| 47' | ⚽ | Jude Bellingham · Real Madrid CF |
| 62' | 🟨 | Raúl Asencio · Real Madrid CF |
| 62' | 🟨 | Javier Hernández · Leganes |
| 65' | 🟨 | Diego García · Leganes |
| 74' | 🟨 | Renato Tapia · Leganes |
| 76' | ⚽ | Kylian Mbappé · Real Madrid CF |
| 89' | 🟨 | Óscar Rodríguez · Leganes |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 24 | Shots | 10 |
| 10 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Madrid CF | Leganes |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |
| venue | Estadio Santiago Bernabéu |
| coach days |
| 1397.00 |
| 637.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.87 | 1.14 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1929.56 | 1557.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.49 | -12.50 |
| eye test v1 | 0.36 | -0.65 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.53 | 0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.70 | 51.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.65 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.59 |
| league points | 60.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.80 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.00 | 44.80 |
| rest days | 14.10 | 13.29 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 2.14 | 0.96 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 8.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.01 | -0.49 |
| solidity v1 | -0.21 | -0.22 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.10 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 26.88 | 32.10 |
| state index | 1.27 | -0.40 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.78 | 0.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.48 | 1.30 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.46 | 1.02 |