← Primera Division 2024-25 · Fri, Mar 14, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Mario Melero
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Alavés win | 35% | 34% | 2.83 | fair |
| Las Palmas win | 33% | 37% | 2.90 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 32% | 29% | 3.04 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Alavés +0 | 51% | 1.94 |
| Las Palmas +0 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 62% | 57% | 1.56 | fair |
| Over | 38% | 43% | 2.54 | value: +10% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Alex Suárez · Las Palmas |
| 4' | 🟨 | Joan Jordán · Deportivo Alavés |
| 5' | 🟨 | Álex Muñoz · Las Palmas |
| 7' | ⚽ | Toni Martínez · Deportivo Alavés |
| 45' | 🟨 | Toni Martínez · Deportivo Alavés |
| 49' | 🟨 | Sandro Ramírez · Las Palmas |
| 63' | ⚽ | Jon Guridi · Deportivo Alavés |
| 80' | 🟨 | Nahuel Tenaglia · Deportivo Alavés |
| 90' | 🟨 | Manuel Fuster · Las Palmas |
| 90' | 🟨 | Adnan Januzaj · Las Palmas |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 9 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 22 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Las Palmas | Deportivo Alavés |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.40 |
| venue | Estadio de Gran Canaria |
| 🟨 |
| Asier Villalibre · Deportivo Alavés |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Fábio Silva · Las Palmas |
| 90' | ⚽ | Alberto Moleiro · Las Palmas |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3.20 |
| coach days | 164.00 | 1048.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 2.80 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1553.01 | 1601.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -27.12 | -6.01 |
| eye test v1 | -0.76 | 0.37 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.11 | 0.50 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.20 | 48.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.42 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.74 |
| league points | 24.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.20 | 75.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.20 | 54.60 |
| rest days | 5.10 | 6.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 0.89 | 0.96 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.89 | 0.18 |
| solidity v1 | -0.76 | 0.41 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.20 |
| squad age | — | 26.67 |
| state index | -0.83 | 0.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.47 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.67 | 1.42 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.74 | 1.55 |