← Primera Division 2024-25 · Sun, Mar 9, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: José Sánchez
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Betis Balompié win | 72% | 64% | 1.34 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 26% | 5.33 | value: +39% |
| Las Palmas win | 10% | 10% | 10.26 | value: +5% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas −1.5 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Real Betis Balompié −1.5 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 53% | 1.69 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 47% | 2.26 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Jaime Mata · Las Palmas |
| 19' | 🟨 | Diego Llorente · Real Betis Balompié |
| 30' | 🟨 | Viti Rozada · Las Palmas |
| 38' | 🟨 | Álex Muñoz · Las Palmas |
| 39' | 🟨 | Stefan Bajčetić · Las Palmas |
| 53' | 🟨 | Dário Essugo · Las Palmas |
| 61' | 🟨 | Dário Essugo · Las Palmas |
| 61' | 🟥 | Dário Essugo · Las Palmas |
| 65' | ⚽ | Diego Llorente · Real Betis Balompié |
| 67' | 🟨 | Javier Muñoz · Las Palmas |
| 80' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 8 |
| 6 | On target | 1 |
| 11 | Corners | 1 |
| 12 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 8 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Betis Balompié | Las Palmas |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 |
| venue | Estadio Benito Villamarín |
| 🟨 |
| Johnny Cardoso · Real Betis Balompié |
| 90' | 🟨 | Juanma Herzog · Las Palmas |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3.00 |
| coach days | 1681.00 | 159.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.22 | 1.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1705.12 | 1557.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 25.69 | -27.38 |
| eye test v1 | 1.02 | -0.58 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.10 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.70 | 51.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.68 |
| league points | 38.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.60 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.40 | 45.20 |
| rest days | 2.99 | 8.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.46 | 0.92 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.40 | -4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.40 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.80 | -0.48 |
| solidity v1 | 1.31 | -0.65 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 27.69 | — |
| state index | 0.75 | -0.83 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.23 | -0.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.83 | 1.61 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.91 | 0.87 |