← Primera Division 2024-25 · Sun, Mar 9, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: Guillermo Cuadra
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Atlético de Madrid win | 51% | 51% | 1.92 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | 3.23 | fair |
| Getafe CF win | 20% | 22% | 5.08 | value: +10% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Club Atlético de Madrid +0.5 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Getafe CF +0.5 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 64% | 64% | 1.52 | fair |
| Over | 36% | 36% | 2.67 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Yellu Santiago · Getafe CF |
| 39' | 🟨 | Omar Alderete · Getafe CF |
| 39' | 🟨 | Robin Le Normand · Club Atlético de Madrid |
| 57' | 🟨 | Álvaro Rodriguez · Getafe CF |
| 74' | 🟨 | Christantus Uche · Getafe CF |
| 74' | 🟨 | Diego Rico · Getafe CF |
| 75' | ⚽ (pen) | Alexander Sørloth · Club Atlético de Madrid |
| 88' | 🟥 | Ángel Correa · Club Atlético de Madrid |
| 88' | ⚽ | Mauro Arambarri · Getafe CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Juanmi · Getafe CF |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 4 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 14 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Getafe CF | Club Atlético de Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 |
| venue | Estadio Coliseum |
| 90' |
| 🟨 |
| Alexander Sørloth · Club Atlético de Madrid |
| 90' | ⚽ | Mauro Arambarri · Getafe CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.80 |
| coach days | 708.00 | 4847.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 3.43 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1672.67 | 1915.09 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.21 | 18.20 |
| eye test v1 | -0.98 | -0.28 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.09 | -0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.30 | 47.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.88 |
| league points | 30.00 | 56.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 64.80 | 84.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.60 | 45.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.71 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.15 | 2.15 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.59 | 0.26 |
| solidity v1 | 0.60 | 0.61 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 29.05 | 28.41 |
| state index | 0.19 | 1.32 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.69 | -0.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.23 | 1.18 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.79 | 1.38 |