← Primera Division 2024-25 · Sun, Feb 23, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Javier Alberola
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Betis Balompié win | 34% | 31% | 2.84 | fair |
| Draw | 33% | 40% | 2.90 | value: +17% |
| Getafe CF win | 32% | 28% | 3.05 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Real Betis Balompié +0 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Getafe CF +0 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 70% | 64% | 1.39 | fair |
| Over | 30% | 36% | 3.20 | value: +15% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ | Isco · Real Betis Balompié |
| 77' | ⚽ (pen) | Isco · Real Betis Balompié |
| 79' | 🟨 | Álvaro Rodriguez · Getafe CF |
| 82' | ⚽ | Borja Mayoral · Getafe CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Domingos Duarte · Getafe CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Domingos Duarte · Getafe CF |
| 90' | 🟥 | Domingos Duarte · Getafe CF |
| 90' | 🟥 | Antony · Real Betis Balompié |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 17 | Fouls | 20 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Getafe CF | Real Betis Balompié |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.50 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.40 |
| venue | Estadio Coliseum |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 694.00 | 1667.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 2.01 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1694.28 | 1722.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 55.51 | 14.67 |
| eye test v1 | -0.42 | 1.07 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | 0.38 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.30 | 55.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.72 |
| league points | 30.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 63.80 | 83.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 34.60 | 53.60 |
| rest days | 8.90 | 2.99 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.80 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.70 | 0.64 |
| solidity v1 | 0.55 | 0.84 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 7.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.80 |
| squad age | 28.88 | 26.14 |
| state index | 0.90 | 0.59 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.51 | 0.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.30 | 1.05 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.05 | 1.51 |