← Primera Division 2024-25 · Sun, Feb 23, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: César Soto
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club win | 80% | 81% | 1.20 | fair |
| Draw | 14% | 13% | 7.50 | fair |
| Valladolid win | 6% | 7% | 18.00 | value: +19% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club −1.75 | 53% | 1.86 |
| Valladolid −1.75 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 56% | 1.72 | fair |
| Under | 44% | 44% | 2.20 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Mikel Jauregizar · Athletic Club |
| 35' | ⚽ | Nico Williams · Athletic Club |
| 43' | ⚽ | Maroan Sannadi · Athletic Club |
| 44' | 🟨 | Mario Martín · Valladolid |
| 45' | ⚽ | Oihan Sancet · Athletic Club |
| 46' | 🟨 | Stanko Jurić · Valladolid |
| 47' | ⚽ | Mamadou Sylla · Valladolid |
| 56' | 🟨 | Stanko Jurić · Valladolid |
| 56' | 🟥 | Stanko Jurić · Valladolid |
| 66' | ⚽ | Nico Williams · Athletic Club |
| 69' |
| 4 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 29 | Shots | 5 |
| 16 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 5 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Athletic Club | Valladolid |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.80 |
| venue | San Mamés Barria |
| ⚽ |
| Gorka Guruzeta · Athletic Club |
| 79' | 🟨 | Daniel Vivian · Athletic Club |
| 84' | 🟨 | Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta · Athletic Club |
| 87' | ⚽ | Iñaki Williams · Athletic Club |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 998.00 | 22.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.38 | 2.15 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.33 |
| elo | 1815.62 | 1505.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.02 | -39.31 |
| eye test v1 | 0.99 | -0.99 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.08 | 0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.80 | 53.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -2.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 3.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.53 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.52 |
| league points | 45.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.80 | 82.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.20 | 45.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.91 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.88 | 0.63 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 11.80 | -9.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.40 | 8.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.05 | -0.45 |
| solidity v1 | 1.26 | -1.55 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 1.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 27.13 | 25.25 |
| state index | 1.27 | -1.27 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.24 | 0.43 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.67 | 2.02 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.10 | 0.57 |