← Primera Division 2024-25 · Sun, Feb 16, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Miguel Ortiz
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mallorca win | 53% | 52% | 1.85 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.50 | fair |
| Las Palmas win | 20% | 19% | 5.18 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas −0.75 | 54% | 1.81 |
| Mallorca −0.75 | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 51% | 1.67 | fair |
| Over | 42% | 49% | 2.32 | value: +13% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Vedat Muriqi · Mallorca |
| 25' | 🟨 | Enzo Loiodice · Las Palmas |
| 28' | ⚽ | Vedat Muriqi · Mallorca |
| 35' | ⚽ | Dani Rodríguez · Mallorca |
| 44' | 🟨 | Mika Mármol · Las Palmas |
| 45' | 🟨 | Viti Rozada · Las Palmas |
| 62' | ⚽ | Stefan Bajčetić · Las Palmas |
| 82' | 🟨 | Cyle Larin · Mallorca |
| 90' | 🟨 | Scott McKenna · Las Palmas |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 7 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Mallorca | Las Palmas |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.00 |
| venue | Estadi Mallorca Son Moix |
| coach days | 230.00 | 138.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.89 | 1.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1616.96 | 1573.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.51 | -27.00 |
| eye test v1 | -0.99 | 0.01 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.18 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.10 | 56.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.67 |
| league points | 31.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.20 | 82.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.40 | 52.80 |
| rest days | 5.90 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.35 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.12 | 0.32 |
| solidity v1 | -0.15 | -1.84 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.30 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 28.27 | — |
| state index | -0.25 | -0.43 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.22 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.30 | 2.53 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.03 | 1.21 |