← Primera Division 2024-25 · Sat, Feb 15, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: Pablo González
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Alavés win | 42% | 50% | 2.32 | value: +15% |
| Draw | 32% | 25% | 3.00 | fair |
| Leganes win | 26% | 25% | 3.94 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Alavés +0.25 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Leganes +0.25 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 68% | 56% | 1.42 | fair |
| Over | 32% | 44% | 3.01 | value: +32% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | 🟨 | Moussa Diarra · Deportivo Alavés |
| 10' | ⚽ (pen) | Dani Raba · Leganes |
| 18' | 🟨 | Manuel Sánchez · Deportivo Alavés |
| 25' | ⚽ | Kike García · Deportivo Alavés |
| 36' | 🟨 | Antonio Sivera · Deportivo Alavés |
| 37' | ⚽ (pen) | Dani Raba · Leganes |
| 50' | ⚽ (pen) | Joan Jordán · Deportivo Alavés |
| 57' | 🟨 | Darko Brašanac · Leganes |
| 59' | 🟨 | Santiago Mouriño · Deportivo Alavés |
| 65' | 🟨 | Dani Raba · Leganes |
| 67' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 16 |
| 3 | On target | 7 |
| 3 | Corners | 2 |
| 18 | Fouls | 15 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leganes | Deportivo Alavés |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| venue | Estadio Municipal de Butarque |
| 🟨 |
| Juan Cruz · Leganes |
| 68' | ⚽ | Joan Jordán · Deportivo Alavés |
| 83' | 🟨 | Duk · Leganes |
| 88' | ⚽ | Munir El Haddadi · Leganes |
| 90' | 🟥 | Munir El Haddadi · Leganes |
| 90' | 🟨 | Abdelkabir Abqar · Deportivo Alavés |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 595.00 | 1021.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -7.80 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.16 | 3.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1570.19 | 1595.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.98 | -1.97 |
| eye test v1 | -0.68 | -1.07 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.10 | -0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.70 | 52.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | — |
| league points | 23.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 75.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.00 | 47.60 |
| rest days | 5.91 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.35 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.91 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -11.00 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.69 | -0.42 |
| solidity v1 | -0.24 | 1.44 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 32.10 | 26.98 |
| state index | -0.29 | -0.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.27 | 0.53 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.12 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.16 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.89 | 0.60 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.94 | 1.05 |