← Primera Division 2024-25 · Sun, Feb 9, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Alejandro Hernández
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona win | 65% | 63% | 1.48 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 20% | 4.99 | fair |
| Sevilla FC win | 15% | 17% | 6.50 | value: +11% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sevilla FC +1.25 | 51% | 1.92 |
| FC Barcelona +1.25 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 66% | 70% | 1.47 | value: +3% |
| Under | 34% | 30% | 2.81 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Robert Lewandowski · FC Barcelona |
| 8' | ⚽ | Rubén Vargas · Sevilla FC |
| 16' | 🟨 | Saúl Ñíguez · Sevilla FC |
| 38' | 🟨 | Pablo Gavi · FC Barcelona |
| 45' | 🟨 | Isaac Romero · Sevilla FC |
| 46' | ⚽ | Fermín López · FC Barcelona |
| 55' | ⚽ | Raphinha · FC Barcelona |
| 62' | 🟥 | Fermín López · FC Barcelona |
| 67' | 🟨 | Loïc Badé · Sevilla FC |
| 80' | 🟨 | Eric García · FC Barcelona |
| 88' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 14 | Fouls | 6 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sevilla FC | FC Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.40 |
| venue | Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán |
| 🟨 |
| Marcão · Sevilla FC |
| 89' | ⚽ | Eric García · FC Barcelona |
| 90' | 🟨 | Suso · Sevilla FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 253.00 | 284.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 7.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 9.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.17 | 3.78 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.76 |
| elo | 1693.10 | 1934.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.73 | -29.55 |
| eye test v1 | 0.18 | 1.43 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.03 | 0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.20 | 49.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 2.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.64 |
| league points | 28.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.60 | 88.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.00 | 72.80 |
| rest days | 8.29 | 7.29 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.27 | 2.05 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 12.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.40 | 18.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.56 | 2.53 |
| solidity v1 | 0.61 | 1.13 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.20 |
| squad age | 27.55 | 24.99 |
| state index | 0.54 | 1.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.14 | 1.57 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.10 | 0.78 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.31 | 2.60 |