← Primera Division 2024-25 · Sun, Feb 9, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: Isidro Díaz de Mera
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Alavés win | 41% | 41% | 2.35 | fair |
| Draw | 34% | 35% | 2.80 | fair |
| Getafe CF win | 25% | 24% | 4.04 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Getafe CF −0.25 | 50% | 1.96 |
| Deportivo Alavés −0.25 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 73% | 64% | 1.33 | fair |
| Over | 27% | 36% | 3.77 | value: +36% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Allan Nyom · Getafe CF |
| 40' | 🟨 | Christantus Uche · Getafe CF |
| 42' | 🟨 | Abdelkabir Abqar · Deportivo Alavés |
| 44' | ⚽ (pen) | Mauro Arambarri · Getafe CF |
| 66' | 🟨 | Mauro Arambarri · Getafe CF |
| 70' | 🟨 | Juanmi · Getafe CF |
| 81' | 🟨 | Ramón Terrats · Getafe CF |
| 85' | 🟨 | David Soria · Getafe CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Asier Villalibre · Deportivo Alavés |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 4 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 16 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Deportivo Alavés | Getafe CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Estadio de Mendizorroza |
| 4.00 |
| coach days | 1015.00 | 680.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.58 | 1.35 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1607.23 | 1623.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.66 | 32.39 |
| eye test v1 | -1.14 | -0.48 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.17 | 0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.70 | 51.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.77 |
| league points | 21.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.40 | 67.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.00 | 40.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 0.95 | 1.09 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.74 | -1.25 |
| solidity v1 | 1.26 | 0.22 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 26.55 | 28.43 |
| state index | 0.14 | 0.54 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.02 | -1.43 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.11 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.71 | 1.50 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.09 | 1.14 |