← Primera Division 2024-25 · Sat, Feb 8, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Francisco Hernández
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal CF win | 59% | 59% | 1.63 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 21% | 4.18 | fair |
| Las Palmas win | 17% | 20% | 5.65 | value: +11% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas +1 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Villarreal CF +1 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 63% | 1.68 | value: +5% |
| Under | 43% | 37% | 2.30 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Alex Suárez · Las Palmas |
| 33' | 🟨 | Sergi Cardona · Villarreal CF |
| 37' | 🟨 | Mika Mármol · Las Palmas |
| 38' | 🟨 | Santi Comesaña · Villarreal CF |
| 40' | 🟨 | Sandro Ramírez · Las Palmas |
| 53' | ⚽ | Álex Baena · Villarreal CF |
| 55' | 🟨 | Scott McKenna · Las Palmas |
| 66' | ⚽ | Ayoze Pérez · Villarreal CF |
| 84' | ⚽ | Manuel Fuster · Las Palmas |
| 90' | 🟨 | Alberto Moleiro · Las Palmas |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 12 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Las Palmas | Villarreal CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.80 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | Estadio de Gran Canaria |
| 🟨 |
| Javier Muñoz · Las Palmas |
| 90' | 🟨 | Álex Baena · Villarreal CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 130.00 | 465.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.62 | 2.18 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.64 |
| elo | 1580.13 | 1754.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.50 | 26.86 |
| eye test v1 | -0.08 | 1.22 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.10 | 55.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 1.91 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.60 |
| league points | 23.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.00 | 83.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.00 | 49.00 |
| rest days | 4.90 | 7.09 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.05 | 1.68 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | 6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 16.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.31 | 1.09 |
| solidity v1 | -1.58 | 0.76 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.00 |
| squad age | — | 26.49 |
| state index | -0.26 | 1.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.66 | -0.41 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.49 | 0.93 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.10 | 2.51 |