← Primera Division 2024-25 · Sat, Feb 8, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: Mateo Busquets
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| RC Celta de Vigo win | 44% | 42% | 2.20 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.40 | fair |
| Real Betis Balompié win | 28% | 29% | 3.65 | value: +5% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| RC Celta de Vigo −0.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Real Betis Balompié −0.25 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 51% | 56% | 1.93 | value: +9% |
| Over | 49% | 44% | 1.98 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 14 | Shots | 12 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 7 |
| 11 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Estadio Abanca-Balaídos |