← Primera Division 2024-25 · Fri, Feb 7, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Gil Manzano
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win | 68% | 69% | 1.43 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 20% | 4.45 | fair |
| Valladolid win | 10% | 11% | 9.25 | value: +6% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Valladolid −1.25 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid −1.25 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 54% | 61% | 1.79 | value: +9% |
| Over | 46% | 39% | 2.11 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 8 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand