← Primera Division 2024-25 · Mon, Feb 3, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Mario Melero
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Girona win | 64% | 61% | 1.50 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 22% | 4.58 | fair |
| Las Palmas win | 15% | 17% | 6.91 | value: +18% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Girona −1 | 54% | 1.81 |
| Las Palmas −1 | 46% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 55% | 57% | 1.77 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 43% | 2.14 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 11 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Estadi Municipal de Montilivi |