← Primera Division 2024-25 · Sat, Feb 1, 03:15 PM UTC · ref: Isidro Díaz de Mera
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal CF win | 79% | 76% | 1.22 | fair |
| Draw | 13% | 15% | 7.50 | value: +10% |
| Valladolid win | 7% | 9% | 15.47 | value: +41% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Villarreal CF −2 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Valladolid −2 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 68% | 60% | 1.41 | fair |
| Under | 32% | 40% | 3.00 | value: +21% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 30' | 🟨 | Juan Foyth · Villarreal CF |
| 36' | 🟨 | Lucas Rosa · Valladolid |
| 42' | ⚽ | Ayoze Pérez · Villarreal CF |
| 64' | ⚽ | Pape Gueye · Villarreal CF |
| 66' | 🟨 | Selim Amallah · Valladolid |
| 70' | ⚽ | Santi Comesaña · Villarreal CF |
| 86' | ⚽ | Thierno Barry · Villarreal CF |
| 90' | ⚽ | Denis Suárez · Villarreal CF |
| 90' | ⚽ | Selim Amallah · Valladolid |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 22 | Shots | 8 |
| 8 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 9 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Villarreal CF | Valladolid |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.22 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.82 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.80 |
| venue | Estadio de la Cerámica |
| coach days | 458.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -4.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 2.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.12 | 2.01 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.27 |
| elo | 1748.52 | 1533.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.36 | 4.39 |
| eye test v1 | 0.78 | -1.54 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | 0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.20 | 54.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.66 | 0.53 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.61 |
| league points | 34.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.80 | 81.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.40 | 40.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.62 | 0.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | -10.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 6.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.62 | -0.68 |
| solidity v1 | 0.50 | -0.06 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 1.80 |
| squad age | 26.28 | 25.25 |
| state index | 0.89 | -0.59 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.40 | 0.42 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.15 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.13 | 1.43 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.08 | 0.63 |