← Primera Division 2024-25 · Sun, Jan 26, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: César Soto
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona win | 77% | 79% | 1.25 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 14% | 6.68 | fair |
| Valencia CF win | 8% | 7% | 12.98 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Valencia CF −2 | 53% | 1.85 |
| FC Barcelona −2 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 68% | 70% | 1.43 | fair |
| Under | 32% | 30% | 3.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Frenkie de Jong · FC Barcelona |
| 8' | ⚽ | Ferran Torres · FC Barcelona |
| 14' | ⚽ | Raphinha · FC Barcelona |
| 24' | ⚽ | Fermín López · FC Barcelona |
| 45' | ⚽ | Fermín López · FC Barcelona |
| 59' | ⚽ | Hugo Duro · Valencia CF |
| 66' | ⚽ | Robert Lewandowski · FC Barcelona |
| 70' | 🟨 | Pepelu · Valencia CF |
| 75' | ⚽ (og) | César Tárrega · FC Barcelona |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 5 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 22 | Shots | 7 |
| 11 | On target | 2 |
| 14 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Barcelona | Valencia CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.76 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Estadi Olímpic Lluís Companys |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 270.00 | 56.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.60 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.20 | 2.72 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1926.88 | 1642.85 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -33.79 | 12.26 |
| eye test v1 | 1.20 | -0.55 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | 0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.70 | 58.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.66 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.63 |
| league points | 39.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.60 | 78.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 68.60 | 47.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.95 | 0.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 10.00 | -4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.80 | 8.40 |
| skill v1 | 2.22 | -0.10 |
| solidity v1 | 0.24 | 0.18 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 24.28 | 26.47 |
| state index | 0.78 | 0.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.25 | 0.41 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.23 | 1.35 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.59 | 1.33 |