← Primera Division 2024-25 · Fri, Jan 24, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Gil Manzano
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas win | 38% | 39% | 2.55 | fair |
| CA Osasuna win | 32% | 29% | 3.11 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 31% | 3.24 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas +0 | 55% | 1.76 |
| CA Osasuna +0 | 45% | 2.19 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 60% | 1.76 | value: +6% |
| Over | 45% | 40% | 2.16 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Manuel Fuster · Las Palmas |
| 19' | 🟨 | Kike Barja · CA Osasuna |
| 23' | 🟨 | Jesús Areso · CA Osasuna |
| 24' | 🟨 | Alejandro Catena · CA Osasuna |
| 30' | 🟨 | Dário Essugo · Las Palmas |
| 53' | ⚽ | Aimar Oroz · CA Osasuna |
| 58' | 🟨 | Jon Moncayola · CA Osasuna |
| 69' | 🟨 | Fábio Silva · Las Palmas |
| 72' | 🟨 | Dário Essugo · Las Palmas |
| 72' | 🟨 | Alex Suárez · Las Palmas |
| 72' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 16 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 14 | Fouls | 17 |
| 7 | Yellow cards | 8 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Las Palmas | CA Osasuna |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | Estadio de Gran Canaria |
| 🟥 |
| Dário Essugo · Las Palmas |
| 77' | 🟨 | Flavien Boyomo · CA Osasuna |
| 82' | 🟨 | Rubén García · CA Osasuna |
| 88' | 🟨 | Andy Pelmard · Las Palmas |
| 90' | 🟨 | Adnan Januzaj · Las Palmas |
| 90' | 🟨 | Iker Muñoz · CA Osasuna |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jorge Herrando · CA Osasuna |
| 90' | ⚽ | Adnan Januzaj · Las Palmas |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 115.00 | 2429.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.73 | 2.79 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1585.24 | 1638.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.52 | -16.54 |
| eye test v1 | -0.20 | -0.82 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.16 | -0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.80 | 58.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.76 |
| league points | 22.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.60 | 82.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.60 | 54.40 |
| rest days | 5.20 | 5.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.10 | 1.30 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.08 | 0.14 |
| solidity v1 | -0.88 | 0.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.00 |
| squad age | — | 28.12 |
| state index | 0.11 | -0.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.62 | 1.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.05 | 1.27 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.07 | 0.75 |