← Primera Division 2024-25 · Sat, Jan 18, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Alejandro Hernández
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Real Betis Balompié win | 52% | 55% | 1.86 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 24% | 3.60 | fair |
| Deportivo Alavés win | 21% | 21% | 4.82 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Real Betis Balompié −0.5 | 52% | 1.87 |
| Deportivo Alavés −0.5 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 56% | 55% | 1.73 | fair |
| Over | 44% | 45% | 2.21 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 7 | Shots | 9 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 24 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Estadio Benito Villamarín |