← Primera Division 2024-25 · Sun, Jan 12, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: Javier Alberola
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Las Palmas win | 37% | 37% | 2.60 | fair |
| Draw | 35% | 33% | 2.80 | fair |
| Getafe CF win | 28% | 30% | 3.56 | value: +6% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Getafe CF −0.25 | 54% | 1.81 |
| Las Palmas −0.25 | 46% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 70% | 58% | 1.39 | fair |
| Over | 30% | 42% | 3.20 | value: +33% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 12 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Estadio de Gran Canaria |