← Primera Division 2024-25 · Fri, Jan 3, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: César Soto
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid CF win | 67% | 70% | 1.44 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 17% | 4.89 | fair |
| Valencia CF win | 13% | 13% | 7.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Valencia CF +1.25 | 51% | 1.95 |
| Real Madrid CF +1.25 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 60% | 1.68 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 40% | 2.28 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | ⚽ | Hugo Duro · Valencia CF |
| 36' | 🟨 | Dani Ceballos · Real Madrid CF |
| 69' | 🟨 | Sergi Canós · Valencia CF |
| 78' | 🟨 | Stole Dimitrievski · Valencia CF |
| 78' | 🟨 | Lucas Vázquez · Real Madrid CF |
| 79' | 🟥 | Vinícius Júnior · Real Madrid CF |
| 85' | ⚽ | Luka Modric · Real Madrid CF |
| 87' | 🟨 | Luka Modric · Real Madrid CF |
| 90' | ⚽ | Jude Bellingham · Real Madrid CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 17 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 16 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Valencia CF | Real Madrid CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.55 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.49 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | Estadio de Mestalla |
| coach days | 33.00 | 1312.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.10 | 3.29 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1583.46 | 1947.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -30.25 | -2.65 |
| eye test v1 | -0.38 | 0.89 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | 0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.90 | 59.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.66 |
| league points | 12.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.80 | 89.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.20 | 63.00 |
| rest days | 12.29 | 12.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 0.71 | 2.22 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.69 | 1.51 |
| solidity v1 | 0.83 | 0.35 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.00 |
| squad age | 27.23 | 27.16 |
| state index | -0.37 | 1.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.10 | 1.57 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.13 | 1.10 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.37 | 1.60 |