← Primera Division 2024-25 · Sun, Dec 22, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Alejandro Muñiz
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal CF win | 50% | 53% | 1.92 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.58 | fair |
| Leganes win | 23% | 22% | 4.37 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Villarreal CF +0.5 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Leganes +0.5 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 52% | 1.88 | fair |
| Over | 48% | 48% | 2.03 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Seydouba Cisse · Leganes |
| 16' | ⚽ | Thierno Barry · Villarreal CF |
| 33' | ⚽ (pen) | Dani Raba · Leganes |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Thierno Barry · Villarreal CF |
| 58' | 🟥 | Óscar Rodríguez · Leganes |
| 58' | 🟨 | Yéremy Pino · Villarreal CF |
| 65' | ⚽ | Thierno Barry · Villarreal CF |
| 77' | 🟥 | Jorge Sáenz · Leganes |
| 79' | 🟨 | Thierno Barry · Villarreal CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Adrià Altimira · Leganes |
| 90' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 5 | Shots | 18 |
| 3 | On target | 9 |
| 1 | Corners | 5 |
| 17 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 2 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leganes | Villarreal CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.79 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.60 |
| venue | Estadio Municipal de Butarque |
| ⚽ (pen) |
| Gerard Moreno · Villarreal CF |
| 90' | ⚽ | Pau Cabanes · Villarreal CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 540.00 | 417.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.45 | 2.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.22 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1581.43 | 1728.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.41 | -32.59 |
| eye test v1 | -1.14 | 0.23 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.39 | -0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.60 | 52.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.77 |
| league points | 18.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.60 | 82.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.20 | 52.00 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 3.88 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 1.06 | 1.59 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -9.40 | 3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.51 | 0.62 |
| solidity v1 | -0.57 | 0.34 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 32.10 | 25.51 |
| state index | -0.04 | 0.00 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.48 | 0.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.64 | 1.70 |