← Primera Division 2024-25 · Sun, Dec 22, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: Javier Alberola
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia CF win | 46% | 47% | 2.11 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.25 | fair |
| Deportivo Alavés win | 24% | 24% | 4.16 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Valencia CF −0.25 | 54% | 1.85 |
| Deportivo Alavés −0.25 | 46% | 2.14 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 61% | 62% | 1.57 | fair |
| Over | 39% | 38% | 2.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Carlos Martín · Deportivo Alavés |
| 22' | 🟨 | Carlos Martín · Deportivo Alavés |
| 70' | ⚽ (pen) | Luis Rioja · Valencia CF |
| 86' | 🟨 | Cristhian Mosquera · Valencia CF |
| 88' | ⚽ (pen) | Joan Jordán · Deportivo Alavés |
| 90' | 🟨 | Pepelu · Valencia CF |
| 90' | ⚽ | Dani Gómez · Valencia CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 20 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Valencia CF | Deportivo Alavés |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Estadio de Mestalla |
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 21.00 | 966.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.32 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1631.34 | 1637.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.22 | -4.60 |
| eye test v1 | -0.20 | -0.63 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.60 | 52.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.82 | 0.66 |
| league points | 11.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.40 | 74.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.60 | 43.80 |
| rest days | 3.69 | 6.91 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 0.69 | 0.94 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.20 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 8.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.65 | -0.70 |
| solidity v1 | 0.94 | -0.26 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 27.59 | 27.27 |
| state index | 0.01 | -0.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.84 | 0.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.32 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.98 |