← Primera Division 2024-25 · Sat, Dec 21, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: José Munuera
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Getafe CF win | 40% | 44% | 2.45 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 37% | 30% | 2.62 | fair |
| Mallorca win | 23% | 26% | 4.29 | value: +11% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Mallorca −0.25 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Getafe CF −0.25 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 77% | 62% | 1.25 | fair |
| Over | 23% | 38% | 4.23 | value: +62% ⚠ |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | 🟨 | Antonio Sánchez · Mallorca |
| 21' | 🟨 | Djené · Getafe CF |
| 33' | 🟨 | Bertuğ Yıldırım · Getafe CF |
| 53' | ⚽ (pen) | Cyle Larin · Mallorca |
| 59' | 🟨 | Dominik Greif · Mallorca |
| 79' | 🟨 | Diego Rico · Getafe CF |
| 80' | 🟨 | Juan Berrocal · Getafe CF |
| 87' | 🟨 | Robert Navarro · Mallorca |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 0 |
| 19 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Getafe CF | Mallorca |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.81 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.80 |
| venue | Estadio Coliseum |
| coach days | 630.00 | 173.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.81 | 2.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1637.16 | 1679.71 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.80 | 7.49 |
| eye test v1 | -0.99 | -0.83 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.60 | 62.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.67 |
| league points | 16.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.60 | 79.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.60 | 41.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.91 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.94 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 8.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.98 | -0.46 |
| solidity v1 | 0.73 | -0.63 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 27.53 | 28.58 |
| state index | 0.32 | 0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.27 | -0.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.27 | 1.82 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.44 | 1.06 |