← Primera Division 2024-25 · Wed, Dec 18, 08:30 PM UTC · ref: Alejandro Hernández
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Villarreal CF win | 54% | 50% | 1.80 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | 3.85 | value: +4% |
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win | 20% | 23% | 4.90 | value: +13% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Villarreal CF −0.5 | 55% | 1.76 |
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid −0.5 | 45% | 2.17 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 53% | 54% | 1.85 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 46% | 2.06 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 18 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 7 |
| 10 | Fouls | 15 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Estadio de la Cerámica |