← Primera Division 2024-25 · Sun, Dec 15, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: César Soto
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Club Atlético de Madrid win | 72% | 74% | 1.36 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 17% | 5.00 | fair |
| Getafe CF win | 9% | 9% | 14.00 | value: +23% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Club Atlético de Madrid −1.25 | 54% | 1.89 |
| Getafe CF −1.25 | 46% | 2.19 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 53% | 58% | 1.84 | value: +8% |
| Over | 47% | 42% | 2.09 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 7 |
| 3 | On target | 1 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Riyadh Air Metropolitano |